Folks, I almost spilled my coffee reading this one. Apparently, Kalshi is investigating some suspicious trades that correctly predicted Katie Zacharia would be the next White House press secretary. I mean, who wouldn’t want to bet on that, right? According to a person familiar with the matter, these trades were tiny, under $100, with one being a whopping $19. But here’s the thing, when these trades were placed, Zacharia’s chances of getting the job were a mere 1% – talk about a long shot. If these bets pay off, they could net thousands of dollars, which is just crazy.
Now, I know what you’re thinking, what’s the big deal about a few small trades? Well, it’s not just about the amount of money, it’s about the potential for insider trading. Experts say that these “knowable markets” are more susceptible to insider trading because the answers are, well, knowable in advance. It’s like having a crystal ball, but instead of predicting the future, you’re predicting the next press secretary.
A watchdog report published on Friday by the nonpartisan Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that super-specific “knowable” markets related to the 2026 midterm elections have attracted more than $20 million in trading volume. That’s a lot of people trying to predict the future, if you ask me. Company leaders at Kalshi have stressed their efforts to crack down on insider trading, but it’s hard to keep track of everything, especially when you have robust surveillance tools that are supposed to catch unexpected spikes in markets.
I have to say, I’m a bit amused by the whole thing. I mean, who tries to make a quick buck by betting on the next press secretary? It’s like trying to predict the weather – unpredictable and prone to surprises. The Wall Street Journal first reported these potentially suspicious trades, and now everyone’s talking about it. Even CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, but don’t worry, CNN editorial employees aren’t allowed to trade on prediction platforms – that would be a conflict of interest, if you ask me.
The trades around Zacharia’s selection were small compared to other recent high-profile insider trading cases. I mean, Trump’s White House teleprompter operator profited over $107,000 from unlawful bets on Kalshi, and a special forces soldier is facing criminal charges for allegedly making $400,000 on Polymarket. Now, that’s what I call a big deal. However, just because a trade is small, it doesn’t mean it’s not insider trading – it can still break the law, and that’s what Kalshi is trying to figure out.
As Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a researcher at the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, said, “Insider information is often timely… There’s a small window someone can bet. Not every American has $10,000 in a bank account that they can put on Kalshi within a few hours before the prices change.” That’s a good point, but it’s not like people are going to stop trying to make a quick buck anytime soon.
In conclusion, this whole story is just a big mess, but hey, at least it’s entertaining. I mean, who doesn’t love a good game of “predict the press secretary”? It’s like a national pastime or something. Anyway, I’m sure Kalshi will get to the bottom of this, and we’ll all be waiting with bated breath to see what happens next. And who knows, maybe I’ll even place a bet or two – just kidding, I’m not that crazy. Yet.
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
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