Folks, let me tell you, reading about these recent primaries has been a wild ride. Two successive weeks of primaries brought two successive shocks for progressive candidates in purple states, and I’m still trying to wrap my head around it all. It’s noisy out there, indeed!
I mean, take Wisconsin, for example. Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist, had a 95% chance of winning on prediction markets, according to Kalshi. But, bless their hearts, she ended up losing to David Crowley by the tightest of margins. I’m talking fewer than 5,000 votes separate the two. And neither reached 40% in the race. You can’t make this stuff up, folks.
And then there’s Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed seemed like a lock with a lead in recent polls. But, it all led up to a more than 97% chance of victory on primary eve, according to Kalshi. He ended up winning, but with less than 49% of the vote, just one percentage point ahead of his moderate rival. Somewhere in Atlanta, a producer thought this sounded terrifying, I’m sure.
Now, I know some of you might be thinking, “Big Elephant, what’s the big deal about prediction markets?” Well, let me tell you, it’s all about probability, folks. A 5% probability doesn’t mean it won’t happen; it means it should happen 1 in 20 times. And if 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken, as Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour so aptly put it.
But here’s the thing: polling quality matters. Michigan and Wisconsin are home to some of the highest-profile recent election polling misses, and pollsters agree they are notably places that are hard to poll well. Voters in both states have proved reliably swingy, and neither state has partisan voter registration, which makes it difficult to model voter file data that improves modern polling.
Looking ahead to November, polling should be viewed for what it does say rather than what it does not. A recent CNN Poll showed that voters preferred Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the November midterm election. But, let’s not get too comfortable, folks. November is still an eternity away, and momentum can shift.
There are going to be a lot of polls out there that may point in different directions, a lot of them conducted by groups with a partisan agenda. On the Kalshi prediction market, the odds of Democrats taking control of the House has been growing all summer and currently sits at more than 85%. But, let’s keep things in perspective, folks. These numbers mean people who are placing monetary bets think the safer bet is on Democrats winning. In the Senate, the odds of one party or the other winning control are about even.
In conclusion, folks, these primaries have been a rollercoaster ride, and we’ve learned that November is still a long way off. Momentum can shift, and polling quality matters. So, let’s take a deep breath, grab another cup of coffee, and remember that these numbers are only as good as the conventional wisdom. And with that, I’ll leave you with this thought: if prediction markets are the “truth machines” some people claim they are, then I’m the king of the jungle 🐒.
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
