Folks, I almost spilled my coffee reading this one. Top Democrats in Washington have been watching with cautious restraint as Republicans dumped millions into red states like Kansas and South Carolina to defend an increasingly shaky Senate map. But now, Democrats think they have a real chance to win seats deep in Trump territory as Republicans face their worst midterm environment in decades and the Senate map abruptly expands.
It seems that Democrats are getting a little too excited about their chances in states like Kansas, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa – all four states that Trump won by double digits in 2024. With just 22 days to go, Senate Democrats’ top super PAC surprised some in its own party by investing $5 million in Kansas, a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century. Bless their hearts, they’re really hoping to flip some seats.
Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, said “The gap is closing in Kansas.” Recent public polling showed a tied race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that Trump won by 16 points two years ago. Democrats’ own internal polling in Kansas also showed Hamilton in a true position to compete. You can’t make this stuff up, folks – the idea that Democrats could actually win in Kansas is just wild.
But inside the party, there’s a fierce debate about how far to expand the map when Democrats are already battling for so many expensive toss-up races. There’s anxiety about how much to spread their limited cash without costing winnable seats. Privately, Senate Democrats had been planning to keep their limited pool of cash in what they see as must-win races in North Carolina and Georgia, as well as holding Michigan and flipping seats in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas.
Now, voters’ anti-Trump backlash is driving Democrats to gamble in even redder seats. In recent days, there’s a growing sense that their party has a real shot in Kansas, in particular, where Republicans are spending almost $10 million on air to defend incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. It’s a strategy that would have been once unthinkable for Democrats, who just weeks ago were dismissing the idea that they would seriously spend in Texas – let alone Kansas.
Maeve Coyle, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said “Democrats expanded the map deep into GOP territory and created new opportunities to flip seats – putting us in the strongest position yet to win the Senate majority.” But there’s also plenty of fear that Democrats’ decision to put money in a red state like Kansas could divert resources from a crucial battleground state like Michigan or Ohio.
In Kansas, Methodist megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton has been careful to distance himself from Washington Democrats. Self-described as an “independent-minded Democrat,” Hamilton has previously told CNN he won’t support Schumer for leader. And recently, when one sitting Democratic senator offered to campaign for Hamilton, the candidate’s team turned the senator down, according to one person familiar with the discussions.
The complicating factor for Democrats is money. While Democratic candidates and groups have raised record sums, Senate Republicans have benefited from even more massive spending from GOP super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Top Democrats have been clear that they simply don’t have enough money to go after every potentially competitive seat.
In the final weeks, top Senate Democrats’ mindset had been to “stay the course” in their current battlefield rather than expanding it at the last minute into places like South Carolina. But even so, Senate Democrats are not dismissing the chances outright of an upset in these states. Schumer’s campaign arm has encouraged senators to play up the expanding map, including tightening races like Mississippi or South Carolina.
Schumer has personally told donors that Mississippi’s Senate race deserves attention, another person familiar with the discussions told CNN. But campaign officials have also been clear that they can’t take their attention off the other toss-up races that they need to flip control of the Senate, or even traditionally blue seats that have seen unusual amounts of spending. Everything feels really good right now, the question is, can that hold?
In conclusion, it’s been a wild ride watching Democrats try to flip seats in red states. With the midterms just around the corner, it’ll be interesting to see if their strategy pays off. One thing’s for sure, folks – this election season has been full of surprises, and I’m just here for the popcorn. The real question is, will Democrats’ gamble in Kansas pay off, or will it be a costly mistake? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure, it’s going to be a fun ride.
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
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