Folks, I almost spilled my coffee reading this one. The Democrats’ path to the Senate majority is improving, and recent polls have shown the party leading in three states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Ohio, and Texas. Bless their hearts, they need at least two of those to win the majority. The polls in Iowa, which Trump also carried by double digits, have been closer than some surveys in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, including in new CNN polling released Thursday.
The story in Iowa isn’t that Democrats are doing badly; it’s just that they’re not polling as well as they have in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas — despite Trump having carried all of those states by similar margins in 2024. Recent quality polls have Democrats winning Alaska by 7, Texas by 6, and Ohio by as much as 6 and 8 points. But the new CNN polling showed a 6-point Democratic edge in Ohio, while the CNN Iowa poll was neck-and-neck, with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45% and Democratic state Sen. Josh Turek at 43%.
The atmospherics don’t differ too much between Iowa and Ohio. In both states, the CNN polls show about three-quarters of likely voters said Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living, about 7 in 10 said gas prices have been at least a moderate hardship, and 55%-58% said tariffs have been bad for their states. However, Iowa appears somewhat less inclined to ditch Trump and the GOP. The president’s approval rating there isn’t quite as low as in Ohio. And the CNN poll shows that 53% of likely voters in Iowa prefer GOP control of Congress, while 52% in Ohio prefer Democratic control.
Maine is a different story altogether. This blue state might be Democrats’ biggest headache right now. A recent New York Times poll showed Trump’s approval rating is more than 30 points underwater, but virtually every quality Senate poll is within the margin of error. Some Democrats panicked when that Times poll showed GOP Sen. Susan Collins at 49% to Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson’s 46%. The big problem for them is that voters just aren’t enamored of Jackson. His image was underwater in both Times and Marist College polling.
Michigan is another state where Democrats are struggling. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led by 5 points among likely voters in the Times poll and 7 points among registered voters in a Marist poll. But other polls like a Fox News survey show a margin-of-error race. It’s pretty clear the closeness of the race reflects at least some voter uncertainty about El-Sayed, a left-wing candidate whom many Democrats worried about nominating in the first place. El-Sayed lags the Democratic nominee for governor, Secretary of State Joceyln Benson, consistently in polling. And his image ratings are usually only about even.
New Hampshire is also a challenge for Democrats. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has a lead over former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu in most recent quality polling. He led by 5 points in a Times poll and 8 points in a University of New Hampshire poll. However, Democrats will wish it weren’t even that close, given this is a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024. Part of the reason it’s somewhat close is that Pappas’ image is only OK. Another is that GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte is popular and primed for reelection at the top of the ticket. She led by 11 points in the Times poll.
In conclusion, the road to the 2026 midterms is full of twists and turns. The Democrats’ path to the Senate majority is improving, but they still have a long way to go. With states like Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire proving to be challenging, it’s going to be a wild ride. And I’m just sitting here, sipping my coffee, thinking, “You can’t make this stuff up.” As the election approaches, one thing is certain – it’s going to be a fascinating few weeks. Somewhere in Atlanta, a producer is already thinking about how to make the election night coverage exciting, and I’m here for it! 😊
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
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