I’m sipping my coffee and reading about the US Supreme Court’s decision to block President Donald Trump’s efforts to restrict mail ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, and I have to say, the reactions are about what you’d expect. Democrats are cheering, while Trump is, well, being Trump. The ruling is being seen as a win for democracy, but it’s not entirely clear that the restrictions would have hurt Democrats more than Republicans. In fact, some estimates suggest that the gap between Democratic and Republican mail voters has narrowed somewhat between 2020 and 2024.
The Pew Research Center found that in 2020, 58% of validated voters who voted Democratic said they voted by mail, while just 32% of Republican voters did. By 2024, the numbers were 43% for Democratic voters and 25% for Republican ones. But here’s the thing: older and rural voters, who tend to be more Republican, are more likely to use mail voting because they live further from polling places. So, it’s possible that the restrictions could have actually hurt Republicans more.
A Postal Service whistleblower recently warned that the new system for verifying mail ballots was prone to errors and could lead to mass disenfranchisement of votes. And that would seem primed to hurt Democrats. But longtime Republican elections lawyer Ben Ginsberg has suggested that Trump’s plans to change mail voting might actually have backfired on Republicans. Ginsberg said that’s not just because GOP voters are older and more rural, but also because they’re disproportionately less likely to turn out to vote in elections that don’t feature Trump on the ballot.
Ginsberg called Trump’s strategy “flawed” and said it was “wrapped in a rather vocally charged policy.” He also noted that Republican voters are significantly less enthusiastic about voting in the 2026 midterms than Democrats. So, it’s possible that the restrictions could have dissuaded some Republican voters from voting at all. The USPS whistleblower claimed that if there was just one discrepancy between voter lists submitted by state elections officials and the mail ballots they send out, entire batches of tens of thousands of ballots could be held up.
If mail ballots being sent to voters were held up because of that potential mass disruption, it would matter which party’s voters are more likely to use other avenues to vote or might not vote at all. Regardless of whose voters the change might ultimately have hurt more, though, there were certainly plenty of ways the rushed restrictions could have created a debacle or threatened free and fair elections. Trump has shown he’s plenty willing to do whatever it takes to win and has frequently flirted with meddling in how elections are run.
And even if that wasn’t the administration’s intention, allowing the changes so late in the game could have opened up a Pandora’s box. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a Trump appointee, said in his concurrence that he was open to the rule changes being legal, but that election officials did “not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule.” All of which might help explain why it wasn’t only Democrats who challenged the changes; so too did some Republican secretaries of state.
In conclusion, the Supreme Court’s decision to block Trump’s efforts to restrict mail ballots is a win for democracy, but it’s not a clear-cut victory for either party. The restrictions could have hurt either side, depending on how you look at it. As I finish my coffee, I’m left thinking that this whole debacle is just another example of how complicated and messy politics can be. And I’m just glad that, for now, it seems like common sense has prevailed, and we can all breathe a sigh of relief that our elections will be a little bit safer from meddling. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need a refill on my coffee cup 🙃.
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
⚖️ ENTER THE LEGALIZER
Think the government has no idea what it's doing? Put your case before the Federal Case Terminal and find out.
