Folks, I almost spilled my coffee reading this one. It seems federal regulators are investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger for trading on the prediction platform Kalshi about a pardon he received from former President Joe Biden. I mean, who wouldn’t want to bet on a sure thing, right? Kinzinger traded less than $1,000 on two pardon-related Kalshi markets in late 2024 and early 2025, and betted that he would get a pardon from Biden. He acknowledged making the trades in an interview with CNN, but said he never had any insider information about the pardons.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator that polices prediction markets, is looking into Kinzinger’s trades. Career enforcement officials started scrutinizing the Biden pardon markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket after seeing press reports about potential insider activity. I guess you could say Kinzinger was just trying to hedge his bets, but it’s not exactly the most subtle move.
Kinzinger admitted to making the trades, saying they were two of a “few dozen” bets he placed about political topics. He said he had reviewed Kalshi’s rules beforehand and that he believed his actions did not violate the rules. He even shared screenshots with CNN showing that he wagered a total of $669 and netted $823. Not a bad profit, if you ask me.
Kinzinger also denied that he engaged in insider trading, primarily because he says he did not have any advance knowledge of the pardons and did not discuss potential pardons with the Biden White House. He said he hasn’t heard from any government investigators, but I’m sure that’ll change soon enough.
It’s worth noting that Kalshi also uncovered Kinzinger’s trades during a broader look into “suspicious” activity and flagged them to the CFTC. The source said Kalshi tried to get in touch with Kinzinger, but he did not respond. I guess Kinzinger was too busy counting his winnings to bother with a little thing like regulatory oversight.
There are calls for more regulation of prediction platforms, and I can see why. With billions of dollars in weekly trading volume, it’s a Wild West out there. The CFTC has settled cases with the former Trump White House teleprompter operator and former Rep. George Santos for “unlawful” bets on Kalshi. And a bipartisan coalition of 44 states have urged the CFTC to rein in prediction platforms.
Ironically, Kinzinger himself has called for more regulation of prediction sites, writing in a November 2025 Substack post that Kalshi and other prediction sites are a “corruption time bomb” and a “threat to democracy” because politicians can profit from insider knowledge. I guess you could say he’s a bit of a hypocrite, but hey, at least he’s consistent.
In conclusion, it seems like Kinzinger got caught up in a bit of a mess, but I’m sure he’ll come out of it just fine. After all, as the old saying goes, “you can’t fix stupid,” but you can definitely profit from it. And who knows, maybe he’ll even start a new trend in political betting – after all, it’s not like politicians haven’t been making bets on themselves before. 🙄
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
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