The Republican Party’s midterm campaign is looking like a hot mess, folks. Just three weeks out from November, officials are scrambling to avert losses in a string of once-safe seats that could cost them total control of Congress. I almost spilled my coffee reading this one – it’s like they’re trying to triage a patient with multiple gunshot wounds. The worsening landscape has alarmed GOP operatives across several battleground states, forcing the party to pour resources into traditionally red districts and states at the expense of their once-expansive ambitions in Democratic areas. Bless their hearts, they’re in a tough spot.
The party’s leaders are worried that President Donald Trump’s unpopularity might be doing more harm than good on the campaign trail. One House Republican running for re-election said of the president’s numbers: “Trump is dragging the party down.” You can’t make this stuff up, folks. The grim outlook gripping the GOP follows weeks of polling showing Republicans on track to lose the House amid intense voter anger over the Iran war and rising cost of living – and at grave risk of losing their once-solid majority in the Senate as well.
The widening number of competitive races has complicated Republican leaders’ plans to make up ground by unleashing hundreds of millions of dollars down the stretch. Despite a massive cash advantage, the spending so far has failed to significantly shift Republicans’ fortunes as more money gets diverted toward races once counted on as comfortable wins. The Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP super PAC in Senate races, has suspended its ad reservations in North Carolina and plowed at least $10 million into Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Somewhere in Atlanta, a producer thought this sounded terrifying, I’m sure.
That’s on top of the more than $100 million that the Senate Leadership Fund has spent in Texas to boost Ken Paxton, who is scrambling to shore up GOP support in his race with Democrat James Talarico after a bruising primary campaign. Trump himself has now traveled to Texas three times in one month to rally voters on Paxton’s behalf. “We were all hoping the war was going to be over now, but it’s not,” said one Trump adviser. I guess that’s what they mean by “unintended consequences.”
Top Republicans steering spending on the House side are also expected to narrow their focus in the coming days, doubling down on races they see as winnable while slashing their investment in candidates whose fortunes are fading. The Cook Political Report dealt the latest blow, moving 18 House races toward Democrats. Those contests include five toss-up seats across Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Washington that the closely watched analysis projects the Democratic candidates are now more likely to win.
Inside the White House, Trump and his top advisers are clear-eyed about the difficult odds of keeping the House and the rising threat to the Senate majority. But there is still optimism that Republicans can limit their losses and turn the prospect of a blue wave into little more than a ripple. Trump advisers expect the polls to tighten in swing races in the campaign’s final days, especially as more ads hit the airwaves and less-engaged Republican voters begin to tune in.
The Senate map has also provided little reassurance for the GOP. Paxton is suffering a drip-drip of damaging audio leaks from a private fundraiser, further frustrating Republican officials who already believe he’s running a poor campaign. Democrats hold polling leads in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, while making insurgent runs in solidly red states like Alaska and even Kansas.
In conclusion, the Republican Party’s midterm campaign is in disarray, and it’s going to be a wild ride to the finish line. With Trump’s unpopularity weighing them down and a slew of competitive races across the country, the GOP is facing an uphill battle to hold onto Congress. As one Republican told CNN, “It’s going to come down to one side saying Republicans have not cleaned their mess up fast enough, and what we are saying is, ‘We know you are struggling, but these are the things we are doing to make your life better and, by the way, they are crazy.” Well, I guess that’s one way to spin it. The midterms are shaping up to be a real circus, folks, so grab some popcorn and enjoy the show!
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
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