Folks, I almost spilled my coffee reading this one. The August jobs report is due out on Friday morning, and economists are expecting that employers added 65,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate inched back up to 4.2%. Now, I’m no expert, but that doesn’t sound like a whole lot of jobs to me. I mean, we’re talking about a country with over 330 million people, and we’re excited about 65,000 new jobs? Bless their hearts.
The US employment is likely to rebound after the surprise in July, when the economy unexpectedly lost an estimated 23,000 jobs, and the jobless rate dropped to 4.1% as people exited the labor market. You can’t make this stuff up, folks. One month we’re losing jobs, the next month we’re gaining them. It’s like trying to predict the weather in my hometown – you just never know what’s going to happen.
Looking through the monthly swings, the underlying story is expected to stay the same: It remains a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market. That’s just a fancy way of saying that employers aren’t hiring a lot of people, and they’re not firing many either. It’s like the labor market is just stuck in neutral.
The stasis and the tepid job growth may not show it, but this labor market is in the throes of a major transformation as Baby Boomers retire, net immigration slows, and exogenous shocks ripple through the economy. Somewhere in Atlanta, a producer thought this sounded terrifying, so they added it to the report to make it sound more exciting. But let’s be real, folks, it’s just a fancy way of saying that things are changing, and we’re not sure what’s going to happen next.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is projecting that the US economy will add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035, which is a 3.5% increase. That’s roughly 49,200 jobs per month, which doesn’t sound like a lot to me. But hey, I’m just a simple guy from the Midwest, what do I know?
The BLS also released a database that categorized occupations based on their theoretical and observed exposure to… certain technological advancements. Let’s just say that some jobs are more likely to be affected than others. You can explore the data below, but I warn you, it’s not exactly exciting reading.
The past, present, and future of the job market are all intertwined, folks. Last year’s job growth was one of the weakest on record, and fresh data shows that employment growth was likely even more listless than previously thought. The US economy added 79,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated between April 2025 and March 2026. That’s a big difference, if you ask me.
The labor market is expected to rebound in the present, but it’s not going to be a huge rebound. July’s estimated job losses were surprising, but they shouldn’t be cause for alarm, several economists noted. The decline was “almost certainly a quirk of seasonal adjustments,” wrote Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. You see, folks, even the experts can’t always figure out what’s going on.
The BLS’ latest labor turnover data showed that hiring activity remained muted despite an uptick in job postings, an indication that employers remain cautious. And, separate data released Thursday shows that the “low-fire” descriptor is holding firm. More US businesses announced job cuts last month than they did in July, but at 52,881, that’s the lowest August total since 2022.
In conclusion, the job market is a mixed bag, folks. We’re not adding a lot of jobs, but we’re not losing a lot either. It’s like the economy is just stuck in neutral, waiting for something to happen. And, as Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said, “There is a cost to a low-hire, low-fire labor market, because one of the ways that workers outrun too-high inflation is by switching jobs.” So, let’s just sit back, relax, and see what happens next. And, if you’re looking for a job, good luck to you – you’re going to need it! 😊
Armchair patriot. Believes in the free market, cold beer, and that there’s always a guy named George behind every CNN segment.
Former remote-throwing champion turned #1 couch commentator on liberal panic in the media. Born in Texas (or so his mug says), he earned a degree in Fake Newsology & Beer Philosophy from YouTube University.
